Hurricane Center

šŸŒ€ TROPICAL MONITORING UPDATE: FIRST AFRICAN DISTURBANCE

šŸŒ€ TROPICAL MONITORING UPDATE: FIRST AFRICAN DISTURBANCE
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Certainly! Here's a TNW Hurricane Operations Bulletin styled to accompany today's Bahamas forecast with Monday's date and full detail as requested:

šŸŒŖļø TNW Hurricane Operations Bulletin
Issued by
: TNW Hurricane Operations Division
Date
: Monday, July 28, 2025
Time
: 1:52 p.m. CBT
Chief of Hurricane Operations
: Todd Nardone
Contributing Team Members
: Rachel Nardone, VP of Weather Operations; The Breaking News Team; Florida Bureau of Operations
Ā© 2025 TNW News, LLC. All rights reserved
.

šŸŒ€ TROPICAL MONITORING UPDATE: FIRST AFRICAN DISTURBANCE ENTERING ATLANTIC THIS WEEK

The TNW Hurricane Center is closely monitoring the first major African tropical wave of the season poised to enter the Atlantic Ocean late today into Tuesday. Satellite imagery reveals a broad and active cluster of thunderstorms just west of Africa. This wave is entering an area of moderate Saharan Air Layer influence and upper-level wind shear, limiting early development potential.

Currently, there is only a 10% chance of tropical development over the next seven days, according to both the National Hurricane Center and TNW Hurricane Operations modeling. However, long-range TNW simulations, including AI-enhanced track and moisture integration models, highlight the potential for the system to reach the northeast Caribbean by the weekend in a semi-coherent form.

🌓 BAHAMAS OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE, HEAT INDEX REMAINS KEY STORY

Meanwhile, the Bahamas Department of Meteorology issued its public forecast this afternoon, noting no active warnings at this time. A weak surface trough is bringing isolated showers across the Central Bahamas, while high pressure and Saharan dust dominate elsewhere, keeping conditions mostly dry and hazy.

šŸ” Key Details for Monday Afternoon & Night (July 28, 2025):

  • Sky: Partly sunny, hazy; fair tonight across all islands.
  • Chance of Rain: 20% for isolated showers or a thunderstorm.
  • Winds: East to southeast 10–15 knots, lighter in the north, gustier in the southeast.
  • Highs: 90–93°F (32–34°C)
  • Heat Index: 95–103°F (35–39°C)
  • UV & Heat Advisory: Residents are urged to stay hydrated, avoid direct sun during peak hours, and wear light clothing.

šŸ—“ļø Outlook Through Sunday, August 3:

  • No tropical cyclone development expected in the Atlantic Basin.
  • Continuation of weak pressure gradients and stable ridging.
  • Daily 20% shower chance persists across all island groups.
  • Monitoring potential indirect impact from the tropical wave by late weekend or early next week.

āš ļø NOTE FROM TNW HURRICANE CENTER:

This system remains non-threatening for now, with no official designation or advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center. Still, TNW News urges early awareness, especially for interests in the eastern Caribbean and Bahamas heading into early August, when conditions may turn more favorable for development.

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