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TD Nine strengthens east of Cuba; likely Imelda and a hurricane off the Southeast by Tuesday morning

Issued: 6:45 PM CDT • By: Hurricane Division Chief Todd Nardone • TNW Hurricane Operations

Headline Takeaways

Status: Tropical Depression Nine (TD 9) is centered just north/east of Cuba and is expected to become Tropical Storm Imelda tonight or early Sunday, then strengthen off the Southeast U.S. coast.

National Hurricane Center

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Watches/Warnings: Tropical Storm Watch posted for Florida’s east coast from the Palm Beach/Martin County line to the Flagler/Volusia County line; tropical storm warnings in parts of the Bahamas.

National Hurricane Center

Track & Intensity: Guidance favors a track northward near/just off Florida’s east coast Monday, then intensifying to a hurricane offshore the Carolinas by Tuesday, with the potential to stall near the Carolinas mid-week. Forecast confidence on exact proximity to shore remains moderate.

The Washington Post

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Primary U.S. Impacts: Heavy rain, coastal flooding, high surf, and rip currents along the Carolinas; tropical-storm conditions possible along Florida’s east coast Monday.

National Hurricane Center

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Current Situation

As of late afternoon, the National Hurricane Center reports TD Nine with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Organization is improving, and tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin in the central and northwestern Bahamas tonight into Sunday.

National Hurricane Center

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Florida: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for portions of the east coast, where tropical-storm conditions are possible on Monday as the system parallels the shoreline. Local media and NHC graphics emphasize rainfall, gusty winds, and surf hazards.

National Hurricane Center

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Regional context: Separate from TD Nine, Hurricane Humberto is a powerful Category 5 over the Atlantic, enhancing swell and rip current risk along the U.S. East Coast; it may also influence TD Nine’s track early next week.

Reuters

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Forecast Timeline (central times)

Tonight–Sunday (Sep 27–28): TD 9 becomes Tropical Storm Imelda near the Bahamas; bands continue over eastern Cuba & the Bahamas with 4–8"+ rain, localized flooding.

National Hurricane Center

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Monday (Sep 29): System tracks near/off Florida’s east coast; tropical-storm conditions possible in watch area; surge & surf hazards increase.

National Hurricane Center

Tuesday (Sep 30): Likely hurricane strength off the Southeast coast, with the highest risk for prolonged coastal impacts in the Carolinas if the storm slows or stalls.

The Washington Post

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Mid-week: Solutions range from stall just offshore with 5–10"+ rain pockets and coastal flooding to a faster inland track; confidence improves after the system consolidates.

The Washington Post

Expected Impacts (by area)

Florida East Coast (Mon): Periods of heavy rain, tropical-storm-force gusts possible, dangerous surf/rip currents; localized coastal flooding at times of high tide.

National Hurricane Center

Georgia & the Carolinas (Tue–Thu): High surf, beach erosion, coastal flooding, and heavy rain with potential for 6–10" localized totals if the storm lingers near the coast; wind impacts depend on proximity.

The Washington Post

Bahamas (Sun): Tropical storm warnings—squalls, flooding rain, and hazardous seas.

National Hurricane Center

Preparedness Actions (TNW checklist)

Florida east coast: Secure loose outdoor items tonight/Sunday; review coastal flood & rip current safety; plan for brief power disruptions Monday.

National Hurricane Center

Coastal GA/SC/NC: Begin flood-prone area prep and tidal timing checks; clear drains; have multiple ways to receive NWS warnings.

The Washington Post

Marine interests: Expect dangerous seas and long-period swell expanding northward; small craft should evaluate harbor plans.

Reuters

TNW Operations Notes

Graphics: TNW News code graphics scaled 5× (Operational Blue). If NHC upgrades to hurricane or any U.S. coastal Watch/Warning changes, panels will flip to Operational Yellow/Red as applicable.

Data sources: National Hurricane Center advisories & key messages, corroborated by major outlets tracking TD Nine/likely Imelda and the Humberto interaction.

Houston Chronicle

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National Hurricane Center

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National Hurricane Center

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Next update window: On issuance of the next NHC advisory package or any change to Florida watch zones.

Thank you for watching. — Todd Nardone, Hurricane Division Chief, TNW News