TNW News Hurricane Operations Division Bulletin

Time: 8:00 AM EDT

Date: Thursday, August 7, 2025

TROPICS UPDATE: Tropics Relatively Quiet for Now, But Watching Developments Next Week

The Atlantic remains quiet today. Neither of the two tropical disturbances monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are expected to impact land, and the odds of either system developing continue to decrease.

Carolina Offshore System:

A small, disorganized system just off the Carolinas is unlikely to develop before merging with a front to its north. It will soon be swept into the North Atlantic.

Invest #96L (Tropical Atlantic):

This disturbance, identified as Invest 96L, is battling Saharan dust and dry air as it moves west-northwest into the central Atlantic. Development chances remain in the medium range per the NHC, but conditions in the central Atlantic are largely hostile, meaning any development will likely be slow if it happens at all.

SYSTEMS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK

The disturbance of greater interest is just moving off the coast of Africa now. Unlike the last wave, it’s emerging farther south, which may allow it to avoid the worst of the dry air and dust north of the tropics. Computer models show it tracking westward toward the Caribbean, potentially reaching the islands late next week or over the following weekend.

Forecasts suggest the atmospheric environment will gradually become more favorable for strengthening as it nears the islands. The speed at which this system organizes will heavily influence its path — stronger systems are more likely to curve north, while weaker systems may head straight into the Caribbean. Forecast clarity will improve as the system develops.

LONG-RANGE OUTLOOK

Beyond a week, specifics become impossible. Long-range models hint at a generally favorable pattern for storm development over the Gulf, Florida, and the Southeast U.S. in mid-to-late August. But remember: forecasts beyond 7–8 days are low-confidence, especially for a system that hasn’t formed yet. Social media posts showing specific landfall scenarios at this stage are speculative and unreliable.

LOOKING AHEAD

History suggests activity picks up mid-August — Dr. Bill Gray famously called August 20 the start of the busy stretch. This year, the environment looks supportive for storms to develop a bit sooner.

NOAA’s final hurricane season update continues to forecast a normal to slightly above-normal season, which averages 7 hurricanes. But as always: it only takes one to make it a devastating season for your community.

Stay prepared, stay informed, and follow trusted sources for updates.

For the latest forecasts, visit hurricanes.g