🔴 TNW NEWS HURRICANE OPERATIONS DIVISION BULLETIN

🗓️ Date: Tuesday, July 15, 2025
🕒 Time: 3:40 PM Central Daylight Time (CDT)
📍 Location: Hurricane Operations Center – TNW News LLC, Aurora, Illinois
✍️ Prepared by: Chief Todd Nardone, Director, TNW Hurricane Operations Division
🌐 Visit: TNWWeather.com/hurricane-center

⚠️ AFTERNOON UPDATE: INVEST 93L CROSSING FLORIDA WITH HEAVY RAIN THREAT

Invest 93L continues its westward track across the Florida Peninsula with scattered thunderstorms and sustained rainfall. Despite land interaction and wind shear, the system maintains a mid-level circulation that could organize more once it reaches the northeastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight or early Wednesday.

Tropical development is possible, but time over water will be short. If sustained convection develops offshore, the next named system will be Tropical Storm Dexter.

🌧️ PRIMARY THREAT: FLASH FLOODING

Whether this becomes a named storm or not, it will deliver a high volume of tropical moisture. The central Gulf Coast, especially southern Louisiana, is under increasing concern for significant flooding.

Forecast Rainfall Totals (Thursday–Saturday):

• Widespread: 2–6 inches
• Locally higher: 6–8 inches+
• Urban areas and low-lying communities face flash flood risk

📍 FORECAST MODEL TRENDS

Afternoon guidance now keeps Invest 93L over land longer, reducing the odds of strong tropical development. However, these weak low-pressure systems can reform quickly and shift, making the forecast less predictable.

TNW analysis of steering currents shows continued movement west-northwest, bringing moisture across Florida and into the Gulf before impacting Louisiana.

🚨 Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall has been expanded across southern Louisiana for Friday, per WPC.

🌀 DEVELOPMENT ODDS

• 48-hour formation chance: Low
• 7-day formation chance: Medium (40%)
  Factors:
  ✅ Warm Gulf waters
  ✅ Brief shear relaxation
  🚫 Short time over water
  🚫 Disorganized current structure

📢 RESIDENT ALERT

• Prepare now for torrential rainfall and possible flooding
• Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and western Florida Panhandle residents should review emergency plans
• Charge mobile devices and power backup equipment
• Monitor official evacuation announcements if issued

🧭 NEXT STEPS

✔ TNW will release a 5X expanded Hurricane Cone Graphic with updated intensity plots
✔ Florida evacuation routes and Louisiana impact zones will be marked
✔ Updated WPC Excessive Rainfall Map will follow shortly

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• Website: TNWWeather.com/hurricane-center

© 2025 TNW News LLC — All rights reserved. No part of this document may be copied, republished, or adapted without written consent from TNW Corporation LLC or the TNW News Operations Division. This bulletin is based on official data from the National Hurricane Center and Weather Prediction Center, with real-time field and radar interpretation by Chief Todd Nardone.