🌪️ TNW News Hurricane Operations Bulletin
Issued by: TNW Hurricane Operations Division
Date: Sunday, July 27, 2025
Time: 11:25 a.m. CGT
Chief of Hurricane Operations: Todd Nardone
Contributing Team Members: Rachel Nardone, VP of Weather Operations; The Breaking News Team; Florida Bureau of Operations
© 2025 TNW News, LLC. All rights reserved.🌊 TROPICS UPDATE: FIRST SIGNIFICANT AFRICAN DISTURBANCE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
The TNW Hurricane Operations Division is closely tracking the first robust tropical disturbance of the season emerging off the west coast of Africa. The system, currently a broad area of thunderstorms, is expected to move into the Atlantic late Monday or early Tuesday. Satellite imagery from the European sector confirms a well-organized convective cluster approaching the coastline.This marks the first African-born disturbance this season with a modeled chance of surviving the currently hostile tropical Atlantic environment. Despite prevailing Saharan dust and dry air, TNW's advanced modeling techniques and proprietary AI-enhanced forecasting tools suggest the system is carrying enough mid-level moisture to remain intact as it traverses the Main Development Region.📉 LIMITING FACTORS

Upper-level wind shear
Dry Saharan air
Unfavorable MJO phase (short-term)These are forecast to suppress strong development through the midweek period. Most computer guidance keeps the system weak and disorganized, with perhaps a modest uptick in convection by Friday as it nears the eastern Caribbean.🔍 MONITORING POTENTIAL

Moisture Surge: Regardless of development, a moisture-rich wave may enhance rainfall for the northeast Caribbean next weekend.
Model Spread: TNW models show a range of outcomes — from a disorganized wave to a weak but coherent tropical low entering the Caribbean by Saturday.Long-range ensemble guidance hints at a more favorable environment near the Bahamas or north of the Greater Antilles in the 9–10 day window, particularly as the MJO signal becomes more conducive during the second week of August.🌐 EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL UPDATE
A tropical depression has formed well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands and is projected to remain weak, staying south of the archipelago. It is one of three areas being monitored, signaling possible MJO-enhanced activity. This trend is being watched carefully as the pulse could propagate into the Atlantic by early August, increasing storm activity potential.🌀 BOTTOM LINE FROM THE TNW HURRICANE CENTER
This is not yet an Invest, and the National Hurricane Center has not issued advisories. However, TNW’s Hurricane Operations Division will continue enhanced monitoring as this is the first significant African wave with development potential this season. Early vigilance is key as we enter the core of hurricane season.🔺NOTICE: This report is the property of TNW News, LLC and the TNW Hurricane Operations Division. It may not be reproduced, redistributed, or reused in any format — including the digital satellite graphic provided — without written authorization from TNW News, LLC Corporation or the TNW Hurricane Operations Division.
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