Published by TNW News Operations Hurricane Division
Chief: Todd Nardone | TNWWeather.com | July 23, 2025

The National Hurricane Center is now monitoring the weak disturbance that the TNW News Operations Hurricane Division has been tracking for several days. The system, tied to a fading frontal boundary, is currently centered near northeast Florida and is expected to push westward into the northern Gulf of Mexico in the coming days.

Although the NHC has assigned only a very low probability of tropical development (10% or less), the system is worth watching. The disturbance is non-tropical in nature at this point and lacks a well-defined area of low pressure. However, as the decaying front over the Southeast dissipates, a more organized system could take shape over the northern Gulf.

Steering Setup:

A dominant heat dome high-pressure system positioned to the north will guide the disturbance westward across the Gulf, with projected movement toward Texas by Friday. Most forecast models agree that this system is unlikely to develop into a strong tropical cyclone. In fact, the NHC's mention of development potential mostly concerns whether the system might reach the minimal threshold of a tropical depression—a classification based solely on the formation of a closed circulation.

Main Impacts:

Regardless of tropical designation, the primary concern with this system will be heavy tropical rainfall.

• Florida can expect downpours and possible flooding today (Wednesday).
• Northern Gulf Coast communities, stretching from Louisiana to Texas, may experience periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday.

As of now, no widespread flooding is forecast, but localized flash flooding is possible. TNW encourages residents to monitor alerts from their local National Weather Service offices.

A Familiar Pattern:

If this pattern sounds familiar, it’s because it is. Roughly two weeks ago, a similar disturbance—designated Invest 93L—followed a nearly identical path. Though it never became a named system, #93L dropped torrential rain from North Florida to Louisiana, and its remnants circled around the same heat dome high now influencing the current disturbance.

Interestingly, some meteorologists believe those leftover remnants of #93L helped seed the formation of today’s disturbance.

Forecast Summary:

• Development Odds: Very Low (≤10%)
• Formation Type: Non-tropical, possibly weak tropical depression
• Rainfall Impact: Enhanced tropical moisture
• Timing:
  Florida – Today (Wed., July 23)
  Northern Gulf Coast – Thurs.–Fri., July 24–25

Looking Ahead:

Beyond this system, no additional tropical activity is expected for the rest of July. The tropics remain relatively quiet overall, though TNW will continue monitoring any subtle signs of activity as we near August, the typical ramp-up period in hurricane season.

🌀 TNW News Operations Hurricane Division
📍 Todd Nardone, General Manager & Division Chief
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