TNW News Operations Center Hurricane Division Bolton, Saturday, October 5, 2024 Operations General Manager, Chief of the Hurricane Operations Division: Todd Nardone 11:36 PM CDT

#BREAKING: The first cone for Hurricane Milton has been released, with the storm expected to impact Florida from Tuesday into Wednesday. The initial landfall intensity forecast by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is upper Category 2, potentially nearing Category 3.

Here are my thoughts as of Saturday:

1. Rapid Organization: This system is organizing quickly over warmer-than-average water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico for October.
2. Potential for Intensification: Given the current conditions, I agree that this will likely intensify into a hurricane in the coming days. A Major Hurricane cannot be ruled out at peak intensity, contingent on favorable conditions aligning.
3. Landfall Probabilities: The highest probability for landfall currently lies between Hernando Beach and Everglades City, which includes potential tracks through Tampa Bay or Southwest Florida. Model changes are always possible, but we expect them to tighten up with greater accuracy in the next day or two. Once that occurs, we will provide more specifics on local surge, wind, and other impacts. Remember, every storm is unique, and their impacts can extend beyond the projected cone.
4. Surge Concerns: Surge will again pose a risk for portions of our western Florida coastline. This storm has a rare angle of approach from the southwest, meaning the southern side of the storm will experience higher surge. The areas closest to the southern half of the eyewall will see the most significant surge. Therefore, the landfall location is crucial; every mile counts! If you are north of the center, winds will come from a different direction and may pull water away from land at landfall. Some surge is still possible north of the center after the storm passes, but it will be less severe compared to areas south.
5. Stay Calm and Prepared: It’s important to remain calm this weekend. Review your hurricane plan with your family or friends and gather necessities without overstocking. Keep in mind your neighbors and the community. If evacuation is advised, please follow through.

You’re in good hands here at WINK. I will guide you through the storm 24/7, providing the necessary information without the hype. Make sure to tune into WINK News for the latest updates throughout the week.