TNW News Hurricane Operations Bulletin – Saturday, November 2, 2024, 9:40 AM

As we enter the final month of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, the TNW Hurricane OpTNW News Hurricane Operations Bulletin – Saturday, November 2, 2024, 9:40 AMerations Division closely monitors multiple areas of interest across the Atlantic. With the season officially ending on November 30, the tropics remain active, with one subtropical storm already named and additional systems under surveillance by the National Hurricane Center.

Southwestern Caribbean Sea: Future Tropical Storm Rafael?

A disturbance currently located in the southwestern Caribbean Sea is likely to develop into at least a tropical depression over the coming days. As of Saturday morning, this system remains a loosely organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms. However, gradual strengthening is anticipated, and it could reach tropical storm strength early next week as it moves across the central and western Caribbean.

Should this disturbance become a tropical storm, it would be named Rafael, the next in line for the 2024 Atlantic season. The TNW Hurricane Operations Division, led by General Manager and Chief Todd Nardone, is advising residents in the Caribbean to prepare for heavy rainfall and potential flooding impacts starting Monday.

Northward Movement Toward the Gulf

Current forecast models indicate a high probability that this system will track toward the southern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday or Thursday. The storm is expected to carry a dense plume of tropical moisture, elevating flooding risks for the Caribbean islands west of Puerto Rico. Portions of South Florida could see increased moisture by midweek as well.

As the system approaches the Gulf, its path remains uncertain due to variable steering patterns and atmospheric conditions. If it strengthens into a tropical storm, it may continue northward, potentially impacting parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast. However, should it remain weak, it is more likely to drift westward toward the Mexican coast. Nardone warns that while the system may encounter unfavorable conditions, such as dry air and wind shear in the Gulf, it will still require close observation throughout the week.

Northeastern Caribbean Sea: Low Development Potential

The NHC is also monitoring an area of low pressure in the northeastern Caribbean Sea. This disturbance has a low chance of development in the coming days but could bring localized heavy rainfall to the northeastern Caribbean islands.

North Atlantic: Subtropical Storm Patty

In the northern Atlantic, a subtropical storm designated Patty developed early Saturday morning. Located over 400 miles west-northwest of the Azores, Patty currently maintains winds of 50 mph. This storm is expected to weaken gradually and could transition to a post-tropical cyclone by late Sunday as it tracks eastward toward Portugal and Spain.

For continuous updates on these developments, visit TNWWeather.com and follow TNW Weather on X, Threads, and Instagram.

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