TNW Weather Newsletter
Date: August 21, 2024

Tropical Trouble Looms: Hawaii's Local Government Gears Up for Potential Storm Impact

Hurricane Gilma Forms in the East PacificHurricane Gilma Forms in the East Pacific

Hurricane Gilma, the second hurricane of the 2024 East Pacific Hurricane Season, formed on Wednesday morning. The storm arrives over a month later than the average date for the season's second hurricane, which typically occurs by July 15. Gilma is expected to peak in intensity over the next 72 hours as it moves westward, potentially nearing Hawaii by early next week.

Developing Cyclones Pose Threat to Hawaii

An active pattern in the Eastern and Central Pacific could result in multiple named storms heading toward Hawaii. While it’s too early to pinpoint the exact impact on the islands, the FOX Forecast Center has indicated that Invests 90/91E may merge and target the region in the coming days. The system's development and path will be closely monitored, with Hurricane Hunters tentatively scheduled to investigate the storm starting Thursday. Low-level missions to gather more data could commence as early as Friday afternoon.

Weather Overview for Hawaii

Breezy trade winds will persist over the next couple of days, bringing limited and brief showers, primarily to windward areas. However, the island weather is expected to become highly dependent on the track and intensity of the developing tropical cyclone as we move closer to the weekend.

First Alert Weather Days Declared

Due to the potential for severe weather, First Alert Weather Days have been declared for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Residents are strongly advised to make necessary preparations now, especially those on the eastern end of the state, which could be most affected.

Forecast Challenges

Forecasting storms in the Pacific presents unique challenges due to the lack of data compared to the Atlantic. This could result in greater variability in the models, making it harder to predict the storm's exact behavior. Additionally, the development of the storm could be complicated by its location, leading to different naming conventions depending on where it becomes organized.

Historical Context

While direct strikes by hurricanes on Hawaii are rare, increased waves and winds are common as storms pass nearby. Last year, the Category 4 Hurricane Dora passed over 500 miles south of Honolulu but still significantly impacted weather patterns. Forecasters are drawing parallels with past events to better anticipate potential outcomes.

Stay Informed

We will continue to monitor the situation closely and provide updates as the storm progresses. Make sure to check TNWWeather.com and follow us on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook for real-time information.

Stay safe, and keep an eye on the sky!

TNW Weather Team