pdated Article: Operations Department, Hurricane Division

Report: Barton Update Source: National Hurricane Center (NHC) Date: Monday, June 29, 2026 Subject: Formation Probability, Potential "Hurricane Jordan"

TALKING TROPICS: NHC Lowers Jordan Formation Chance to 10%

A critical update has been issued by the National Hurricane Center regarding potential tropical development in the North Atlantic. Our operations department, Hurricane Division, confirms that the NHC has officially lowered the formation probability for the tropical disturbance currently under observation.

As of Monday morning, the official NHC advisory indicates a 10% chance of this system developing into a named tropical cyclone—which would be 'Jordan'—within the next 48 hours to seven days.

This is a significant decrease from Sunday's forecast, which held at a 20% probability. The drop signals that environmental conditions for development are less favorable than previously anticipated. The weak tropical wave,currently positioned several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands, continues to struggle against stronger wind shear and a drier air mass.

While the probability is now low (in the "low chance" category, below 30%), the Hurricane Division and the NHC will continue to monitor the disturbance. It is still producing some disorganized shower activity and is moving westward.

All operations and marine personnel are advised that while the threat has diminished, vigilance remains necessary in the tropics. The Hurricane Division will provide further updates should the NHC alter its formation outlook.