Area to Watch for Tropical Development in Southern Caribbean Sea

Copyright Monday, October 28, 2024

Article written by TNW News Breaking News Assignment Desk Staff, General Manager Todd Nardone

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has identified a new area in the southern Caribbean Sea with potential for tropical development. Forecast models show that the chances of development over the next week have risen to a medium range, and TNW Weather specialists note that these odds may continue to increase as we approach the final month of the Atlantic hurricane season.

What to Expect in the Final Weeks of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by midweek. This development aligns with the anticipated return of the Central American Gyre, a weather feature that recently played a role in the formation of hurricanes Helene and Milton, as well as Tropical Storm Nadine.

The NHC's latest outlook states, "Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend when the system begins to drift northward or northeastward over the southwestern and south-central Caribbean Sea."

Understanding the Central American Gyre

The Central American Gyre is a large-scale weather pattern that occasionally aids in the development of late-season tropical systems in the Caribbean. While many of these systems don’t directly impact the U.S., some late-season storms have historically tracked northward toward Florida or along the Eastern Seaboard.

"While a northward track can’t be ruled out, a weaker system meandering in the Caribbean appears more likely," TNW Weather specialists commented. "Our team will monitor developments closely throughout the week."

The next storm in the Atlantic Basin, which includes the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, will be named "Patty."

Quiet Conditions Expected Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin

Across the rest of the Atlantic Basin, conditions are expected to remain calm as we conclude October and approach November. The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on November 30.

For continuous updates on tropical developments, visit TNWWeather.com or follow TNW News LLC across our social media channels.